(2019 Archived) - ARGUMENT VI: Asteroid and Meteorite impact on the Martian Surface vs. Asteroid and Meteorite impacts on Venus
Having written this in 2019, and originally published in 2021.. when I was 15 and 17, there would be inaccuracies that I would correct here. Having removed it, I'm publishing again, for sake of completion so that the efforts wouldn't have gone to vain: Most of this still stands true - mostly if the asteroid in question is big. Also, its not to say that it won't be significant, and fully safe, with tsunami like waves pervading the atmosphere, possibly greatly destabilizing any settlement floating above.
The solar system isn’t just home for the eight planets and the sun; but also for two great belts of asteroids and dwarf bodies – the Asteroid and Kuiper belts – and millions of smaller free bodies which orbit the sun in highly eccentric, deformed and perhaps aimless trajectories. The sheer amount of these free bodies imply that now-or-later, some of these bodies would cross through the orbits of the eight planets and potentially impact the planet on this intercept of trajectories. And for our reference, this happens much more often than we think: The Earth alone is hit by meteorites of energy 3 kilotons, every 1.3 years [8]. Theoretically speaking, the Earth is always being hit by meteorites, but most of them never get to collide with our surface. But, why not? – Because of drag.
The air resistance of the Earth’s stratosphere is quite adequately high enough, to attempt to slow down such a meteorite. The friction caused by this attempt generates a colossal amount of heat around the meteorite, until it disintegrates [1]. Since most meteorites disintegrate in the Earth’s upper atmosphere, mostly none of them ever get to reach the surface. Therefore meteorites or micrometeorites don’t get to pose a threat to humanity – that is humanity on the Earth. Might meteorites and micrometeorites pose a threat to humanity elsewhere?
Well, it might be so on Mars: the diminutive air-resistance of the thin Martian atmosphere – the vacuum to the first decimal place – is inadequate to slow-down and heat-up the meteorites to disintegration. Let’s not forget that Mars is naked– the meteorites are free to collide with the Martian surface intact, and pose a threat to the Martian-colonists. After all, Mars is peppered with a multitude impact craters; which is an edgy reminder of this prospect[1]. A decently-sized meteorite would literally ‘burn’ a hole in the Martian atmosphere, and if unlucky enough to strike a Martian metropolis or colony; would be detrimental to Martian welfare and be damaging to Martian infrastructure – The insurance agents wouldn’t arrive at the scene, and the Martians must deal with it themselves. Another similar threat is that of micrometeorites; which might not have immediate result, but may leave a mark after prolonged periods of time, as with the International Space Station (ISS).
On the other hand, the Venusian cloud-cities would have an Earth-like equivalent of an atmosphere above it, with Earth-like air resistance, which would provide the Venusians with a haven from meteorites and micrometeorites. Besides, the aura of seeing a meteor shower from the Venusian cloud-tops would be special as a hitherto unseen spectacle and would be simply spell-bounding [1].
Let’s take this scenario up-a-notch: what if an asteroid was to collide with Venus or Mars? Well, on the Earth, an asteroid impact is classified as a global catastrophic risk [25]. There is no reason for it to be untrue for Venus or Mars. Let’s look into Mars first: Imagine Mars to be a thriving global metropolis, which rose amidst all the constraints against it, or even as a growing colony – and from the darkness of interplanetary space, a big-ass asteroid had it trajectory on Mars. During impact, the asteroid might incinerate Mars altogether, or create a large crater on the Martian surface – if it still has one! More realistically, the shockwave would likely circumnavigate Mars many times, with Martian temperatures skyrocketing near the area of impact, and dust flung into the air and suspended for a long time – thus blocking the view of the sun and the sky. Basically, Martian civilization and the colonies would most likely die-off, but might have a chance due to underground living. But, whether the living is underground-enough is still questionable. The probability of an asteroid impact is quite low for the Earth, Mars and Venus; but anyway, if it were to happen, it would be catastrophic. The potential of an asteroid impact on Mars being realized is a global catastrophic risk for the Martians.
Hello? Do you still remember the Hellas? The impact basin which happens to be ~7,000 – 7,152m (literally ~ 7 kilometres) below Martian sea level – The 3rd-4th largest impact crater in the entire solar system. Just imagine the formation of another new Hellas.
As for Venus, a similar strategy as for the geomagnetic storm could be operated: Once the asteroid is confirmed to impact at any respective latitude or longitude on Venus with prior notice, the cloud-cities and entire archipelagos could simply get as far away as possible from the impact zone, and take cover behind the planet. The asteroid would slice through the Earth-equivalent atmosphere like butter, and go through the goldilocks zone, and into the hazel abyss below. The air resistance would significantly increase, with the exponential increase of atmospheric density at the lower altitudes; it might greatly reduce the momentum of the asteroid and hopefully enough to reduce the devastation of impact.
Even if that were the case, it would have a great impact on the Venusian surface and render all automated surface activities of the impact zone to be incinerated. The surface would take most of the toll of the asteroid impact, with most surface activities rendered inoperable. But, since all Venusians live above the cloud-tops at the goldilocks zone, it is unlikely that any life would be lost. Still, the atmospheric weather patterns and atmospheric structure at-and-near the impact zone would be heavily disrupted, perhaps with a planet-wide field of influence; which is why the cloud-cities or cloud-archipelagos would be as far away from the impact zone as possible. It is promising, but what if the asteroid arrives unnoticed?
Well, before answering that; we must be aware of an atmospheric phenomenon known as the ‘super-rotation of the Venusian atmosphere’, where the entire upper Venusian-atmosphere rotates around Venus in about 4 days. The cloud-cities and cloud-archipelagos exploit this phenomenon to circumnavigate Venus in every ~110 hours [1]. That means that the Venusian archipelagos and cities are moving targets – targets which move very swiftly across the Venusian atmosphere. Since a moving target is more unlikely to be hit than a stationary one; an unsuspecting asteroid is more unlikely to hit a mobile Venusian cloud-city than a fixed Martian metropolis. Even if a city were to be seriously compromised by an ill-fated impact with a not-so-large undetected asteroid, the city would still float for a considerable amount of time as diffusion is that slow; which would leave plenty-some time to vacate the city and accommodate the displaced population.
Still, most asteroids and large-enough meteorites are quite detectable, which leaves such a scenario to be quite very unlikely; almost impossible. It is almost safe to say that Venusian civilization is almost free from having an asteroid impact as a global catastrophic risk! – It is quite a nice concept to ponder upon.
To wrap this argument up – Because of (1) Venus has an Earth-equivalent atmosphere to protect cloud-civilization upon the cloud-tops, from meteorites. (2) The Martian atmosphere offers little-to-no protection from meteorites. (3) Micrometeorites can cause tear-and-wear over extended periods of time. (4) The Venusians can survive an asteroid impact in-advance by fleeing from the alleged impact zone. (5) The constantly fast-moving Venusian cloud-cities and cloud-archipelagos are a harder target for unsuspecting asteroids and (6) The Martians are at the mercy of Mars’ rotation, which has almost no effectiveness in protecting Martian civilization from both unsuspecting and prior-noticed impacts: I would like to conclude that Venusian cloud-civilization is more safer from asteroid, meteorite and micrometeorite impact, that equivalent Martian civilization.
[8] Walker, R. (2014, January 12). Will we build colonies that float over Venus like Buckminster Fuller’s “Cloud Nine?” Retrieved from (https://www.science20.com/robert_inventor/will_we_build_colonies_that_float_over_venus_like_ buckminster_fullers_cloud_nine-127573).
Achinthya Nanayakkara (30.03.2025)
Originally published - 2021 (now removed)
Originally written - 2019
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